Baseline or counterfactual

Write down where you actually stand today, measured the same way the target will be measured, and what would likely happen anyway if you did nothing new. Without both, any later change looks like proof your effort worked.

Write down where you actually stand today, measured the same way the target will be measured, and what would likely happen anyway if you did nothing new. Without both, any later change looks like proof your effort worked.

Example

For the Spanish goal: today you last about 90 seconds before switching to English, and you have never spoken with a stranger. Counterfactual: eight more months of app streaks would leave that 90 seconds roughly unchanged, since streaks never once produced a conversation.