Belief update

State how the new evidence moved your confidence in each candidate story, with rough before and after numbers. This line scores the world, not your plan or your next step. If nothing moved, write that plainly.

State how the new evidence moved your confidence in each candidate story, with rough before and after numbers. This line scores the world, not your plan or your next step. If nothing moved, write that plainly.

Example

After reading 40 exit surveys you write: "First-week confusion as the main cancel driver goes from about 50 percent likely to 65 percent. Price sensitivity drops from 30 to 20 percent." No action named yet, just the odds.