Predicted trajectory / return-path effect

Write down, before you act, the immediate effect, the path it takes over time, what happens once the consequence loops back to you, how long that round trip takes, and what doing nothing or the best rival explanation would produce instead.

Write down, before you act, the immediate effect, the path it takes over time, what happens once the consequence loops back to you, how long that round trip takes, and what doing nothing or the best rival explanation would produce instead.

Example

You write: week one, spending drops about $400. Two paychecks later, the loop closes: less friction each month means you stop checking the budget, and spending creeps back. Horizon 90 days. No action predicts flat spending; the rival says the drop was just a slow January.