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Monte Carlo
The band built from the bottom rather than drawn by hand. Take the variation you actually observed, run the same period many times drawing from it, and plot every run. The spread of the endings is the forecast, and the runs that fail can be inspected to see what they had in common.
The band built from the bottom rather than drawn by hand. Take the variation you actually observed, run the same period many times drawing from it, and plot every run. The spread of the endings is the forecast, and the runs that fail can be inspected to see what they had in common.
Example
Best when day to day variation is large, you have a real record of it, and order of good and bad days matters.
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