Invert the arrow

Flip which side of a relationship you treat as the cause. Instead of walking a chain from a different end, swap the roles: treat the supposed effect as the driver and the supposed driver as the result, then see which version survives.

Flip which side of a relationship you treat as the cause. Instead of walking a chain from a different end, swap the roles: treat the supposed effect as the driver and the supposed driver as the result, then see which version survives.

Example

You assume a bigger salary produces a bigger retirement balance. Flip it: the balance target drives the salary. Lock a 25% transfer on day one, and your spending, job choices, and city are now downstream of it rather than upstream.