Simulation

Play the situation forward over time, many runs, with the uncertain quantities varying. Unlike a static calculator it shows how outcomes drift, compound, or blow up across scenarios, and which single assumption the answer is most sensitive to. Watch out: unknown mechanisms hiding as tidy parameters.

Play the situation forward over time, many runs, with the uncertain quantities varying. Unlike a static calculator it shows how outcomes drift, compound, or blow up across scenarios, and which single assumption the answer is most sensitive to. Watch out: unknown mechanisms hiding as tidy parameters.

Example

Run your household budget forward 60 months, 1,000 times, letting income dip, repair bills hit, and rates wander. You learn the renovation is safe in 82% of runs, and that the whole answer swings on one number: months of income interruption.