Counterfactual predictions

For each rival mechanism, write down what the world would look like if that cause were removed or changed. Put the rival forecasts side by side, because two mechanisms predicting the same outcome cannot be separated by any test you run.

For each rival mechanism, write down what the world would look like if that cause were removed or changed. Put the rival forecasts side by side, because two mechanisms predicting the same outcome cannot be separated by any test you run.

Example

Phone leaves the bedroom for two weeks. The sleep mechanism predicts bedtime shifts about 40 minutes earlier and moods lift by week two. The social-stress mechanism predicts moods stay flat and the scrolling simply relocates to after school.