Outcome Fielding (Skill vs Luck Attribution)

Michael Mauboussin's framework for determining how much of an outcome was driven by skill versus luck. In high-luck domains (investing, poker, startup outcomes), even excellent decision-making produces variable results, while in high-skill domains (chess, surgery), outcomes track closely with ability. The key insight: most people over-attribute success to skill and failure to luck. Correctly attributing outcomes prevents both arrogance and false modesty.

When to use it

When facing strategic decisions under uncertainty; when multiple stakeholders have competing interests; when the stakes are high and reversibility is low.

How it can help

Provides frameworks for navigating competitive landscapes, allocating resources under uncertainty, and making high-stakes decisions with incomplete information.