Premortem (Prospective Hindsight)

Gary Klein's technique: before launching a plan, imagine it has already failed spectacularly, then work backward to identify what caused the failure. Unlike a risk assessment (which asks 'what could go wrong?'), a premortem assumes failure has occurred and asks 'why did it fail?'—which produces more specific and creative risk identification. The technique also gives team members psychological permission to voice concerns they might suppress in a positive planning atmosphere.

When to use it

When facing strategic decisions under uncertainty; when multiple stakeholders have competing interests; when the stakes are high and reversibility is low.

How it can help

Provides frameworks for navigating competitive landscapes, allocating resources under uncertainty, and making high-stakes decisions with incomplete information.