Resulting (Judging Decisions by Outcomes)

Annie Duke's term for the pervasive error of evaluating decisions by their outcomes rather than by the quality of the decision process given what was known at the time. A poker player who makes the statistically correct call but loses the hand made a good decision with a bad outcome. Resulting punishes good decision-making when luck is bad and rewards bad decision-making when luck is good, systematically corrupting the feedback loop that drives improvement.

When to use it

When facing strategic decisions under uncertainty; when multiple stakeholders have competing interests; when the stakes are high and reversibility is low.

How it can help

Provides frameworks for navigating competitive landscapes, allocating resources under uncertainty, and making high-stakes decisions with incomplete information.