Scenario Planning

A strategic method of creating multiple plausible narratives about how the future might unfold, then stress-testing strategies against each scenario. Developed at Royal Dutch Shell, scenario planning doesn't try to predict the future but to prepare for multiple futures. The key insight: the value isn't in the scenarios themselves but in the strategic conversations they force—revealing assumptions, identifying early warning signals, and building organizational adaptability.

When to use it

When facing strategic decisions under uncertainty; when multiple stakeholders have competing interests; when the stakes are high and reversibility is low.

How it can help

Provides frameworks for navigating competitive landscapes, allocating resources under uncertainty, and making high-stakes decisions with incomplete information.