Cycles

The recognition that many phenomena are cyclical rather than linear—economic booms and busts, market sentiment, innovation waves, political pendulums, biological rhythms. The strategic insight is positioning: knowing where you are in a cycle changes optimal strategy. Buy during busts, sell during booms; invest during pessimism, harvest during optimism. The common error is extrapolating current trends linearly when you're actually at or near a cycle turning point.

When to use it

When dealing with complex, interconnected problems; when interventions keep failing; when small changes produce disproportionate effects; when predicting system behavior.

How it can help

Enables seeing the structural patterns beneath surface-level events. Helps leaders understand why interventions often fail and where to find genuine leverage for change.