Pre-Mortem Protocol (Klein)

A structured protocol developed by psychologist Gary Klein for stress-testing decisions before implementation. The steps: (1) Assemble the decision-making team after a plan has been selected but before execution begins. (2) The facilitator says: 'Imagine we are one year in the future. We implemented this plan, and it was a disaster. Take two minutes to silently write down all the reasons it failed.' (3) Each person reads their failure reasons aloud — go around the room, one reason per turn, until all reasons are exhausted. (4) Categorize the failure reasons into themes (resource failures, assumption failures, external shocks, execution failures). (5) For each high-probability failure mode, add a specific mitigation to the plan. (6) Identify any 'killer' risks that suggest the plan should be fundamentally reconsidered. The key psychological insight: by asking people to imagine the failure has ALREADY happened, you give them social permission to voice concerns they would otherwise suppress due to groupthink.

When to use it

Before launching any major project, initiative, or strategic decision. Before making irreversible commitments (signing leases, hiring key roles, entering markets). During annual planning. Before any decision where the cost of failure is high and the team seems overly confident or aligned.

How it can help

Overcomes the single biggest decision-making failure: the tendency to plan for success and ignore failure modes. Research shows pre-mortems increase the ability to identify reasons for future outcomes by 30%. Unlike devil's advocacy (which feels adversarial), the pre-mortem is experienced as collaborative problem-solving. Takes only 30-45 minutes and can be added to any existing decision process. Immediately actionable for any major decision.