WIll China Continue to Grow

The China growth question is a case for applying and comparing economic models. A defensible answer specifies the growth measure, forecast horizon, dated evidence, and assumptions about capital, productivity, population, and institutions.

This course case is a question about constructing an economic forecast, not a standing prediction about China. A forecast must define growth in what measure, over which horizon, and using information available at what date. Total output, output per person, productivity, and welfare are different targets and can move differently.

Growth accounting, capital-accumulation models, demographic assumptions, and institutional hypotheses can organize relevant questions. Their conclusions remain conditional, and no single institutional requirement follows from the Solow model. A current forecast needs current data, explicit scenarios, and evaluation against later outcomes; an older classroom discussion cannot supply those inputs unchanged.

When to use it

When learning how to structure a national growth forecast or assess whether an older economic argument remains applicable to a new horizon.

How it can help

Use the case to design a forecast: define the target, update data, compare relevant mechanisms, and record conditional scenarios with uncertainty.