Hype Cycle

Gartner’s framework for describing technology expectations and maturity through an innovation trigger, inflated expectations, disillusionment, enlightenment, and productivity. It can structure discussion of hype and practical use, but should not be treated as a guaranteed path or precise forecast.

The Hype Cycle offers a vocabulary for changes in expectations around a technology. It invites a distinction between excitement, disappointment, and demonstrated usefulness. A technology can receive intense attention before it works well, or become less fashionable while useful applications continue to develop.

A position on a stylized curve is not a price forecast, an adoption deadline, or evidence that a particular product will survive. Evaluate a concrete use case, current performance, support, and alternatives. Some technologies may never reach broad productive use, and an apparent trough may reflect a real limitation rather than an overlooked opportunity.

When to use it

When comparing optimistic and pessimistic technology claims or deciding whether to investigate, adopt, wait, or decline.

How it can help

Helps separate publicity and expectation from the evidence that a technology can serve a concrete use case.