Falsification / Confirmation Bias

A claim is meaningful and testable only if there exists some possible observation that could prove it wrong (Karl Popper's falsifiability criterion). Confirmation bias is its enemy: the tendency to seek, notice, and remember evidence that confirms what we already believe while ignoring disconfirming evidence. Together, these concepts form the foundation of rigorous thinking—always ask what would prove you wrong, and actively seek that evidence.

When to use it

When evaluating claims, theories, or business hypotheses. When designing experiments or KPIs. When you find yourself only looking at data that supports your position. When someone makes a prediction—ask what would prove them wrong.

How it can help

Sharpens strategic thinking by forcing clear, testable hypotheses. Prevents teams from pursuing vague goals that can never be evaluated. Counters the natural tendency to build cases for what you already believe rather than stress-testing assumptions.