Substitution Heuristic

Kahneman's meta-heuristic describing how the brain handles difficult questions by substituting an easier question without noticing the swap. 'How happy am I with my life?' gets substituted with 'how do I feel right now?' 'Is this a good investment?' gets substituted with 'do I like this company?' 'How probable is this risk?' gets substituted with 'how easily can I imagine this happening?' The substitution is invisible to the thinker—they believe they've answered the hard question when they've actually answered the easy one. This meta-heuristic EXPLAINS many other biases: affect heuristic, availability heuristic, and representativeness are all specific instances of substitution.

When to use it

When important questions are being answered too quickly (substitution may have occurred); when intuitive answers don't match analytical answers (a different question may have been substituted); when understanding why specific biases occur (they're often substitution of an easier question); when decision quality depends on answering the RIGHT question, not an easier proxy.

How it can help

When making important judgments: identify the ACTUAL question being answered versus the question being ASKED. The practice: after reaching a conclusion, ask 'did I actually answer the question that was asked, or did I substitute a different, easier question?' Common substitutions: 'is this strategy good?' → 'does this strategy feel right?' 'Is this person competent?' → 'is this person likeable?' 'How likely is this outcome?' → 'how easily can I imagine it?' Identifying the substitution is the first step to answering the actual question.