Black Swan

Nassim Taleb's term for rare, unpredictable events with massive impact that are rationalized in hindsight as if they were predictable. The 2008 financial crisis, COVID-19, and the internet were all Black Swans. Three properties: rarity (outside normal expectations), extreme impact (disproportionate consequences), and retrospective predictability (explained away after the fact). Black Swans dominate history and markets, yet our planning assumes they won't happen.

When to use it

When planning assumes a narrow range of outcomes. When risk models rely on historical data (which excludes future Black Swans by definition). When building systems that must survive extreme events.

How it can help

Fundamentally reframes risk management from 'predict and prevent' to 'build robustness to the unpredictable.' Helps leaders stop wasting resources trying to predict the unpredictable and instead invest in resilience, optionality, and antifragility.