Lindy Effect

Taleb's formalization of the principle that the future life expectancy of non-perishable things (ideas, technologies, books, institutions) is proportional to their current age. A book that has been in print for 100 years is expected to remain in print for another 100; a book in print for 1 year is expected to last another 1. The Lindy Effect works because old things have survived many potential extinction events, demonstrating robustness—while new things haven't yet been tested. It applies to ideas, institutions, technologies, and cultural practices—but NOT to perishable things (biological organisms age and die, violating Lindy).

When to use it

When choosing between new and established approaches; when evaluating the likely durability of a technology, practice, or institution; when neomania (attraction to the new) may be overriding judgment; when building for long-term robustness rather than short-term trendiness.

How it can help

When evaluating durability—of business practices, technologies, ideas, or strategies—use age as a predictor. The oldest practices are the most likely to persist. This has direct implications: in a world that fetishizes novelty, Lindy-compatible strategies (proven over decades or centuries) are systematically undervalued. Reading old books is more valuable than reading new ones on average. Established business models are more robust than novel ones. Time-tested management practices outperform trendy ones. Use Lindy as a filter: before adopting anything new, ask 'what's the oldest version of this that still works?'