The Problem Hypothesis

A problem hypothesis states a provisional claim about who encounters a difficulty, in what circumstances, and with what consequence. It should separate the problem from assumptions about its cause and a favored solution, and permit relevant evidence to change the account.

Separate the claim that a problem occurs from claims about its cause or preferred solution. A useful problem hypothesis identifies who encounters what difficulty, in which circumstances, with what consequence. Adding a favored solution too early can make every observation appear to confirm the product you already want to build.

Design the inquiry to allow correction of the problem itself. Look for recent instances, contrasting cases, and current workarounds, while distinguishing a participant's account from observed behavior. Evidence can strengthen or weaken the hypothesis within a scope; one interview or threshold does not conclusively prove a universal customer need.

When to use it

When building or iterating on products; when evaluating market opportunities; when deciding resource allocation; when scaling operations.

How it can help

Directly applicable to building, launching, and scaling products and businesses. Helps prioritize actions, identify market opportunities, and build sustainable competitive advantages.