Process vs Outcome Thinking

The discipline of evaluating decisions by the quality of the decision process rather than the outcome. A good process can produce a bad outcome (bad luck), and a bad process can produce a good outcome (good luck). Over many decisions, good processes reliably produce better outcomes than bad processes. Annie Duke's work on 'resulting'—judging decisions by outcomes—shows this is one of the most persistent decision-making errors, especially in domains with high variance.

When to use it

When facing strategic decisions under uncertainty; when multiple stakeholders have competing interests; when the stakes are high and reversibility is low.

How it can help

Provides frameworks for navigating competitive landscapes, allocating resources under uncertainty, and making high-stakes decisions with incomplete information.