Higher uncertainty × Irreversible

The one cell where you should not simply choose yet. You know too little and cannot take it back, so make the bet smaller, split it into stages, buy yourself an exit, delay, or redesign it into something recoverable.

The one cell where you should not simply choose yet. You know too little and cannot take it back, so make the bet smaller, split it into stages, buy yourself an exit, delay, or redesign it into something recoverable.

Example

The nonrefundable Nepal trek for an untested body sits here. So you pay the $900 for the refundable fare, buying an exit, and stage it: one hard local climb this weekend first. If your knees hold, commit; if not, you lost a weekend, not three weeks.