Credible alternatives

List the serious rival explanations for what you're seeing, without inventing weak strawmen to knock down.

Sales in your small online shop dropped 30 percent last month, and you already have your villain: the platform changed its search algorithm. You read a forum thread where other sellers blame the same thing, and it feels settled. But last month you also raised prices, a competitor launched, and your best product went out of stock for nine days.

Credible alternatives is the move of listing the serious rival explanations for what you're seeing, without padding the list with weak strawmen you can knock down to feel rigorous. The cue is catching yourself with one explanation and a search history full of confirmation. The operation: force out the two to four rivals a skeptical friend would raise, each one an explanation you'd genuinely bet on at some odds. For the sales drop: algorithm change, price increase, new competitor, stockout. Then check the list is minimally sufficient, meaning if all of these were ruled out you'd be truly surprised. What changes is that your next investigation discriminates between live options instead of decorating a foregone conclusion. Skip the move when the cause is directly observable, like a shipped order returned with a note explaining exactly why.