Winner Gets Fuel

The same person, project, or idea keeps winning resources and then winning again. Check how much the apparent advantage depends on the opportunities that earlier success attracted.

Success. Allocation. More opportunity. Success again.

Name the scarce resource, the signal used to allocate it, and how that allocation affects later performance. Check whether alternatives are starved of the chance to demonstrate value. A success-to-resources link can be useful; the question is whether the rule and evidence still serve the intended outcome.

Try this when…

The favorite gets every good opportunity.

We fund what already has the biggest audience.

Our ranking may reflect yesterday’s allocations.

How would the alternatives perform with a fair test?

What you can use it for

Project selection

Inspect whether prior support is being mistaken for independent evidence of promise.

Teaching opportunities

Check how practice and feedback are distributed by current performance.

Community programming

Distinguish genuine demand from visibility created by repeated promotion.