No-action baseline

Ask what would have happened if you had never started. That isolates what the effort itself added. Unlike the next-best-option contrast, this one holds effort at zero, including whatever slow drift or decline doing nothing would have brought.

Ask what would have happened if you had never started. That isolates what the effort itself added. Unlike the next-best-option contrast, this one holds effort at zero, including whatever slow drift or decline doing nothing would have brought.

Example

In the 5K case: last January you ran zero miles. Sitting it out would not have left you at your March time; you would likely be slower than that by now. Measured against that path, this year's race is a clear gain, not a disappointment.