Strategy & Decision-Making
Goals (Clear Objectives)
Explicitly defined outcomes that direct attention, effort, and resource allocation
Decision FrameworksThe encyclopedia
Find a thinking move to make, or a mental model to understand a situation.
Find a mental model
Strategy & Decision-Making
Alternatives (Option Generation)
The deliberate practice of generating multiple options before choosing, because decision quality is fundamentally bounded by the quality of alternatives considered
Decision FrameworksStrategy & Decision-Making
Consequences (Second-Order Effects)
The discipline of tracing effects beyond the immediate first-order consequence by repeatedly asking 'And then what?' Every action creates ripples: first-order effects are obvious, second-order effects require thought, an…
Decision FrameworksGeneral Thinking
Evidence (Evaluating What's True)
A hierarchy for evaluating the reliability of evidence: randomized controlled experiments provide the strongest evidence, followed by large observational studies, small studies, case reports, expert opinion, and finally…
Core Reasoning ToolsRisk & Uncertainty
Risk Assessment
Systematic evaluation of downside scenarios through four questions: (1) What's the worst case? (2) How likely is it? (3) Can I survive it? (4) Is the upside worth the risk? The critical insight from Munger and Bevelin is…
Risk ManagementPsychology & Cognitive Science
Fundamental Attribution Error
The systematic tendency to explain others' behavior in terms of their character ('he's lazy,' 'she's brilliant') while explaining our own behavior in terms of circumstances ('I was tired,' 'I got lucky')
Cognitive Biases & HeuristicsPsychology & Cognitive Science
Asch Conformity Experiment
Solomon Asch's 1951 study demonstrating that people will deny the evidence of their own eyes to conform with a group's incorrect answer
Behavioral PsychologyPsychology & Cognitive Science
Stanford Prison Experiment
Zimbardo's 1971 study demonstrating how rapidly normal people adopt abusive behaviors when placed in positions of authority within certain institutional structures
Behavioral PsychologyPsychology & Cognitive Science
Flow State
Csikszentmihalyi's concept of optimal experience: a state of complete absorption where time distorts, self-consciousness dissolves, and performance peaks
Learning & DevelopmentPsychology & Cognitive Science
Intrinsic vs. Extrinsic Motivation
Intrinsic motivation comes from the inherent satisfaction of the activity itself—curiosity, mastery, meaning, autonomy
Behavioral PsychologyStrategy & Decision-Making
Pro-Con List
The simplest decision framework: explicitly listing arguments for and against a course of action
Decision FrameworksStrategy & Decision-Making
Hypothesis-Driven Development
The practice of framing business and product decisions as testable hypotheses rather than unquestioned plans
Decision FrameworksStrategy & Decision-Making
Back-of-the-Envelope Calculation
Rough quantitative estimation using simplified assumptions and round numbers to quickly assess whether an idea, market, or plan is in the right ballpark
Decision FrameworksStrategy & Decision-Making
Retrospective
A structured post-project review examining what went well, what didn't, and what to change going forward
Decision FrameworksStrategy & Decision-Making
After Action Review
A structured debrief methodology developed by the U.S
Decision FrameworksStrategy & Decision-Making
Negative-Sum Game
An interaction where total value is destroyed—all parties collectively end up with less than they started
Game TheoryStrategy & Decision-Making
Win-Lose
A framing in which one party's gain is the other's loss—a zero-sum game
Game TheoryStrategy & Decision-Making
Lose-Lose
An outcome where all parties end up worse off than they started—the worst possible result of any interaction
Game TheoryStrategy & Decision-Making
Iterated Game
A game that is played repeatedly between the same participants, creating fundamentally different strategic dynamics than one-shot interactions
Game TheoryStrategy & Decision-Making
Pyrrhic Victory
A victory achieved at such devastating cost that it's effectively a defeat
Strategic ThinkingStrategy & Decision-Making
Leverage (Negotiation)
The relative power each party has in a negotiation, determined primarily by four factors: (1) alternatives (BATNA—your best option if this deal falls through), (2) information asymmetry (knowing something the other side…
Strategic ThinkingStrategy & Decision-Making
Burning Bridges
Deliberately eliminating the option to retreat in order to create total commitment to a course of action
Strategic ThinkingGeneral Thinking
False Dichotomy
Presenting a situation as having only two options when more exist—forcing a binary choice on a multi-option reality
Core Reasoning ToolsGeneral Thinking
Moving the Goalposts
Changing the criteria for success after they've been met, making satisfaction of the argument impossible
Core Reasoning ToolsGeneral Thinking
No True Scotsman
An informal logical fallacy where counterexamples are dismissed by retroactively redefining the category to exclude them
Core Reasoning ToolsEconomics & Finance
Negative Returns
The point at which additional input not only fails to improve output but actively makes it worse
Market DynamicsEconomics & Finance
Discounted Cash Flow
A valuation method that estimates the present value of an asset based on its projected future cash flows, discounted at a rate reflecting the riskiness of those cash flows
Investing ModelsEconomics & Finance
Net Present Value
The sum of all future cash flows discounted back to today's value using an appropriate discount rate
Investing ModelsEconomics & Finance
Perfect Competition
A theoretical market structure with many buyers and sellers, identical products, perfect information, and zero entry barriers—where no individual firm can influence the market price
Market StructureEconomics & Finance
Oligopoly
A market structure dominated by a small number of large firms whose strategic decisions are interdependent—each firm must consider rivals' likely responses when making pricing, investment, or marketing decisions
Market StructureEconomics & Finance
Monopsony
A market with a single buyer (or dominant buyer) who has outsized power to dictate terms to sellers
Market StructureEconomics & Finance
Lock-In
The condition where switching to a competitor is so costly—in money, time, effort, or lost data—that customers stay even when alternatives are objectively better
Market DynamicsBusiness & Product Strategy
Platform
A business model that creates value by facilitating exchange between two or more interdependent groups—producers and consumers—rather than by producing goods or services directly
Product & GrowthBusiness & Product Strategy
Multi-Sided Platform
A business model that creates value by facilitating interactions between two or more distinct user groups who need each other
Product & GrowthBusiness & Product Strategy
Vertical Integration
Owning multiple stages of the production or distribution chain rather than outsourcing them
Product & GrowthBusiness & Product Strategy
Horizontal Integration
Growth by acquiring or merging with competitors at the same stage of production
Product & GrowthEconomics & Finance
Portfolio Theory
Markowitz's foundational insight that risk depends not on individual assets but on how they interact
Investing ModelsEconomics & Finance
Rent-Seeking
Using political, legal, or institutional power to capture wealth without creating new value—extracting from the existing pie rather than expanding it
Market DynamicsEconomics & Finance
Crony Capitalism
An economic system where business success depends more on political connections than on competitive merit—where profit comes from government relationships rather than market performance
Market DynamicsEconomics & Finance
Revolving Door
The movement of personnel between regulatory bodies and the industries they regulate, creating conflicts of interest that compromise regulatory independence
Market DynamicsEconomics & Finance
Club Goods
Goods that are excludable (you can prevent non-payers from accessing them) but non-rivalrous (one person's consumption doesn't diminish another's)
Market DynamicsEconomics & Finance
Screening
Mechanisms designed by the less-informed party to extract private information from the more-informed party—the demand-side complement to signaling
Market DynamicsEconomics & Finance
Insurance
A mechanism for transferring risk from an individual to a pool in exchange for a premium
Investing ModelsBiology & Evolution
Survival of the Fittest
Darwin's principle (via Herbert Spencer) that organisms best adapted to their environment are most likely to survive and reproduce
Evolutionary BiologyBiology & Evolution
Symbiosis
Close, long-term interaction between different species (or entities) taking three forms: mutualistic (both benefit), commensal (one benefits, the other is unaffected), or parasitic (one benefits at the other's expense)
EcologySystems & Complexity
Climate Change
The defining example of a complex, slow-moving, global systems problem
Systems ThinkingSystems & Complexity
Early Adopters
The segment of users who adopt new technology or products before the mainstream, tolerating imperfections in exchange for early access and innovation
Growth & AdoptionEconomics & Finance
Long Tail
In digital markets with near-zero distribution costs, the aggregate demand for niche products can equal or exceed demand for hits
Market DynamicsPage 28 of 50 · 1297–1344 of 2,375 models