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People, books, and breakthrough ideas—connected to the mental models and moves you can use.

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Mental Model

Placebo Effect as Expectation Model

Placebo effects are changes attributable to treatment context, expectations, learning, or related processes rather than a specific active component

Mental Model

Planning Fallacy

Kahneman and Tversky's finding that people systematically underestimate the time, cost, and risk of future actions while overestimating their benefits—even when they have direct experience with similar past projects that…

Mental Model

Planning Fallacy (Extended)

The extended model adds to Kahneman's planning fallacy by incorporating Flyvbjerg's finding that STRATEGIC MISREPRESENTATION (deliberate lying about project prospects) operates alongside genuine cognitive bias—and in man…

Mental Model

Planning Fallacy Pattern (Extended Buehler)

Roger Buehler's extended research on the planning fallacy shows it's not just optimism about time—it's a systematic failure to use base rates for comparable past projects, combined with a focus on the specifics of the cu…

Mental Model

Platform

A business model that creates value by facilitating exchange between two or more interdependent groups—producers and consumers—rather than by producing goods or services directly

Mental Model

Platform Cooperativism

Platform cooperativism (Scholz, Schneider) proposes digital platforms owned democratically by users and workers rather than venture capital

Mental Model

Platform Lock-in Assessment

Platform lock-in occurs when switching costs become prohibitive, giving vendors disproportionate power

Mental Model

Plausible

Plausibility means that a claim or explanation appears reasonable given current understanding

Mental Model

Play as Innovation Engine

Play is not a break from productive thinking—it is the primary mechanism through which novel combinations emerge

Mental Model

Playful Experimentation Mindset

A playful experimentation mindset treats real-world challenges as games to be explored rather than problems to be endured

Mental Model

Plot

In storytelling, plot is the causal sequence of events: not just 'what happens' but WHY things happen—the chain of cause and effect that gives events meaning and momentum

Mental Model

Pluralistic Ignorance

The social phenomenon where everyone privately disagrees with a norm but publicly complies because they assume everyone else genuinely supports it—creating a false consensus that nobody actually holds

Mental Model

Plus One Minus Two Rule

A subtraction heuristic that prompts review of existing commitments before adding another, with the ratio treated flexibly.

Cognitive Move

Point or setpoint

A particular desired value held with a small explicit tolerance rather than false exactness.

Mental Model

Poison Pill

A corporate poison pill commonly means a shareholder rights plan designed to deter an acquisition without board agreement

Mental Model

Poka-Yoke (Mistake-Proofing)

Poka-yoke, associated with Shigeo Shingo's manufacturing work, designs a specific error out of a process or makes it detectable before it propagates

Mental Model

Polarity

A framework associated with Barry Johnson for examining recurring tensions between interdependent benefits and managing the costs of neglecting or overusing either side.

Cognitive Move

Policy Boomerang

Trace how a reasonable rule changes behavior in ways that later defeat the rule.

Cognitive Move

Policy Boomerang

A hypothesis that a corrective policy is changing behavior in ways that later defeat the correction.

Mental Model

Political Opportunity Structure

Political opportunity structure (POS) theory explains why movements emerge when they do—not when grievances intensify but when political openings appear

Mental Model

Polyvagal Theory (Porges) — Health Applications

Stephen Porges' polyvagal theory identifies three hierarchical states of the autonomic nervous system: ventral vagal (social engagement, safety, connection—rest/digest/connect), sympathetic activation (fight-or-flight mo…