Find a thinking move to make, or a mental model to understand a situation.
Mathematics & Formal Models
Lamberson and Page distinguish direct from contextual tips, and separately distinguish changes within an outcome class from changes between classes, using a discontinuity-based definition.
Scott Page's Model ThinkingMathematics & Formal Models
Common-pool resource problems arise when exclusion is difficult and use subtracts from others’ availability
Scott Page's Model ThinkingMathematics & Formal Models
Colonel Blotto is a family of games about simultaneous allocation of limited resources across contests whose outcomes depend on relative allocations.
Scott Page's Model ThinkingMathematics & Formal Models
Diffusion models describe state changes through specified contacts and transmission rules
Scott Page's Model ThinkingMathematics & Formal Models
SIS models include recovery that returns an infected unit to susceptibility
Scott Page's Model ThinkingMathematics & Formal Models
The model distinguishes coordination among people from consistency across attributes within a person, and examines how those forces interact under explicit meaning and update rules.
Scott Page's Model ThinkingMathematics & Formal Models
Shared conventions can coordinate expectations and actions, sometimes persisting because unilateral change is costly.
Scott Page's Model ThinkingMathematics & Formal Models
A branching representation of sequential choices and uncertain events, evaluated with a stated objective and available information.
Scott Page's Model ThinkingMathematics & Formal Models
An exact decomposition of aggregate squared prediction error into average individual squared error minus prediction variance.
Scott Page's Model ThinkingMathematics & Formal Models
Population-level cultural patterns can develop through repeated local interactions without a single plan for the overall result.
Scott Page's Model ThinkingMathematics & Formal Models
Repurpose a state-transition model for a new domain while checking the adequacy of its state definitions and conditional-independence assumption.
Scott Page's Model ThinkingMathematics & Formal Models
Exchange can benefit its participants while leaving consequential effects on others outside the decision’s costs and benefits.
Scott Page's Model ThinkingMathematics & Formal Models
A quantity changes by a constant proportion per equal interval, so successive absolute changes depend on a changing base.
Scott Page's Model ThinkingMathematics & Formal Models
A tendency to underestimate compounding or extrapolate proportional change too much like linear change.
Scott Page's Model ThinkingMathematics & Formal Models
A model in which effects of recent shocks persist for a specified finite window, allowing temporary dependence and streaks.
Scott Page's Model ThinkingMathematics & Formal Models
A population-genetic theorem linking the selection component of fitness change with additive genetic variance in fitness.
Scott Page's Model ThinkingMathematics & Formal Models
Straight-line regression estimates a response as an intercept plus a slope times a predictor
Scott Page's Model ThinkingMathematics & Formal Models
Moving from linear to nonlinear modeling means checking whether a constant-slope or additive approximation misses consequential curvature, thresholds, or interactions in the relevant range
Scott Page's Model ThinkingMathematics & Formal Models
Nash equilibrium describes mutually best responses: no player gains by changing strategy alone while the others' strategies remain fixed
Scott Page's Model ThinkingMathematics & Formal Models
Heuristics are explicit shortcuts that reduce search, information use, or computation
Scott Page's Model ThinkingMathematics & Formal Models
Hidden action and hidden information describe different information asymmetries in strategic relationships
Scott Page's Model ThinkingMathematics & Formal Models
The prisoner's dilemma shows how a specific set of individual incentives can make mutual defection an equilibrium even when mutual cooperation would benefit both players
Scott Page's Model ThinkingMathematics & Formal Models
Growth models distinguish rules such as constant addition, constant proportional increase, and specific forms of capacity-limited change
Scott Page's Model ThinkingMathematics & Formal Models
Linear models express additive effects with fixed coefficients
Scott Page's Model ThinkingMathematics & Formal Models
A linear scoring or prediction model combines inputs with fixed weights, often with an intercept
Scott Page's Model ThinkingMathematics & Formal Models
Lyapunov analysis proves specified stability properties of a mathematical dynamical system by constructing a scalar function with suitable positivity and trajectory-change conditions
Scott Page's Model ThinkingMathematics & Formal Models
Lyapunov analysis studies stability through suitable scalar functions; Markov modeling represents next-state probabilities using a sufficient current state
Scott Page's Model ThinkingMathematics & Formal Models
Beyond establishing convergence, analyze its rate, region of attraction, finite-time behavior, and response to specified disturbances
Scott Page's Model ThinkingMathematics & Formal Models
A standard finite-state Markov convergence theorem states that an irreducible, aperiodic chain with fixed transition probabilities approaches a unique stationary distribution independently of its initial distribution
Scott Page's Model ThinkingMathematics & Formal Models
A Markov model of democratization represents transitions among explicitly defined regime states using specified probabilities
Scott Page's Model ThinkingMathematics & Formal Models
A Markov model represents next-state probabilities using a current state assumed sufficient for that prediction
Scott Page's Model ThinkingMathematics & Formal Models
Urn models formalize sampling and updating rules
Scott Page's Model ThinkingMathematics & Formal Models
In the tipping-point context, measuring tips concerns changes in the probability distribution of possible future outcomes when a state or contextual variable changes near a threshold
Scott Page's Model ThinkingMathematics & Formal Models
Mechanism design studies how feasible rules and information arrangements can achieve specified objectives when participants respond strategically
Scott Page's Model ThinkingMathematics & Formal Models
Multi-criteria decision making compares options across several relevant dimensions using explicit constraints and tradeoff assumptions
Scott Page's Model ThinkingMathematics & Formal Models
Network function emerges from connection structure together with the process, node properties, edge meanings, capacities, and timing
Scott Page's Model ThinkingMathematics & Formal Models
Networks model entities and selected relationships as nodes and edges
Scott Page's Model ThinkingMathematics & Formal Models
No panacea is the principle that a remedy's usefulness depends on the problem and conditions
Scott Page's Model ThinkingMathematics & Formal Models
Path dependence concerns persistent effects of history on present possibilities or later outcomes through specified mechanisms
Scott Page's Model ThinkingMathematics & Formal Models
Path dependence concerns persistent effects of history, while chaos concerns sensitive dependence within specified deterministic dynamics
Scott Page's Model ThinkingMathematics & Formal Models
Increasing returns to adoption can amplify contingent early advantages when use improves an option's attractiveness to later adopters
Scott Page's Model ThinkingMathematics & Formal Models
Path dependence concerns effects accumulated through history, while tipping-point analysis concerns a small change near a boundary with a substantial effect on future behavior or possibilities
Scott Page's Model ThinkingMathematics & Formal Models
Peer effects concern causal influences transmitted through interaction with others, potentially through information, norms, incentives, or other channels
Scott Page's Model ThinkingMathematics & Formal Models
Percolation models study connected clusters formed by open sites or edges under specified probability rules
Scott Page's Model ThinkingMathematics & Formal Models
Different problem representations and search methods can expose complementary routes to solutions
Scott Page's Model ThinkingMathematics & Formal Models
Prediction is a testable statement about an outcome, with a defined horizon and uncertainty
Scott Page's Model ThinkingMathematics & Formal Models
Preference aggregation combines individual preferences into a collective ranking or choice under an explicit rule
Scott Page's Model ThinkingMathematics & Formal Models
Probability provides coherent rules for uncertainty over defined events
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